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"THIS is a really exciting time-a new era is starting," says Peter Bazalgette, the chief creative officer of Endemol, the television company behind "Big Brother" and other popular shows. He is referring to the upsurge of interest in mobile television, a nascent industry at the intersection of telecoms and media which offers new opportunities to devicemakers, content producers and mobilenetwork operators.
Already, many mobile operators offer a selection of television channels or individual shows, which are "streamed" across their third generation (3G) networks. In South Korea, television is also sent to mobile phones via satellite and terrestrial broadcast networks, which is far more efficient than sending video across mobile networks. In Europe, the Italian arm of 3, a mobile operator, recently acquired Canale 7, a television channel, with a view to launching mobile TV broadcasts in Italy in the second half of 2006.
Meanwhile, Apple Computer, which launched a video capable version of its iPod portable music player in October, is striking deals with television networks to expand the range of shows that can be purchased for viewing on the device, including "Lost", "Desperate Housewives" and "Law & Order".
Despite all this activity, however, the prospects for mobile TV are unclear. For a start, nobody really knows if consumers will pay for it, though surveys suggest they like the idea. Informa, a consultancy, says there will be 125m mobile TV users by 2010. But many other mobile technologies inspired high hopes and then failed to live up to expectations. And even if people do want TV on the move, there is further uncertainty in two areas: technology and business models.
At the moment, mobile TV is mostly streamed over 3G networks. But sending an individual data stream to each viewer is inefficient and will be unsustainable in the long run if mobile TV takes off. So the general consensus is that 3G streaming is a prelude to the construction of dedicated mobile TV broadcast networks, which transmit digital TV signals on entirely different frequencies to those used for voice and data. There are three main standards: DVB H, favoured in Europe; DMB, which has been adopted in South Korea and Japan; and MediaFLO, which is being rolled out in America. Watching TV using any of these technologies requires a TVcapable handset, of course.
In contrast, watching downloaded TV programmes on an iPod or other portable video player is already possible today. And unlike a programme streamed over 3G or broadcast via a dedicated mobileTV network, shows stored on an iPod can be watched on an underground train or in regions with patchy network coverage. That suggests that some shows (such as drama) better suit the download model, while others (such as live news, sports or reality shows) are better suited to realtime transmission. The two approaches will probably co exist.
Just as there are several competing mobile TV technologies, there are also many possible business models. Mobile operators might choose to build their own mobile TV broadcast networks; or they could form a consortium and build a shared network; or existing broadcasters could build such networks.
The big question is whether the broadcasters and mobile operators can agree how to divide the spoils, assuming there are any. Broadcasters own the content, but mobile operators generally control the handsets, and they do not always see eye to eye. In South Korea, a consortium of broadcasters launched a free to air DMB network last month, but the country's mobile operators were reluctant to provide their users with handsets able to receive the broadcasts, since they were unwilling to undermine the prospects for their own subscription based mobile TV services.
Then there is the question of who will fund the production of mobile TV content: broadcasters, operators or advertisers? Again, the answer is probably "all of the above".
这真是一个令人激动的时刻 --一个新的时代正在开始，Endemol 电视公司的首席创意官Peter Bazalgette这样宣称，他谈到了众人对移动电视的巨大兴趣，这是一个在电信和媒体领域有交叉的新兴产业，给设备制造商、电视内容制作者以及移动网络运营商提供了新的机遇。
许多移动网络运营商已经通过他们的第三代（3G）网络用流媒体方式提供了一些电视频道以及个人表演。在韩国，电视节目也通过卫星和地面广播网传送给移动电话，这远比通过移动网络传输视频更为有效。最近在欧洲，意大利3G移动运营商买下了一个电视频道第七频道，目的是为了2006年下半年在意大利发射移动电视信号。
与此同时，苹果电脑公司在10月发售了一款可以观看电视的便携式音乐播放器iPod，这个播放器大大扩展了电视网络节目的范围，其可以供用户购买的、用于在移动终端的节目范围令人惊奇，包括《迷失》、《绝望的主妇》以及《法律与秩序》。
然而，尽管有这么多的商业行为，移动电视的前景依旧是不明朗的。作为一个开端，没有人真正清楚消费者是否乐意为它付费，即使调查显示他们喜欢这个主意。一个名为Informa的顾问表示到2010年将会有1.23亿移动电视用户。但是有许多其他的移动技术尽管给了人们很高的期待，最终却没能做出成绩。就算人们真的需要在移动中观看电视，还有两方面的不确定因素存在着：技术和商业模式。
在现阶段，移动电视主要通过3G网络用流媒体方式来传送，但是给每一个观众发送一段单独的数据流的效果会很差，而且在长时间的运动中也会不稳定，比如说在移动电视被关闭时。因此大多数人认为3G技术只是建立起一个专门的移动电视广播网络的前奏，这个网络以一种全然不同的频率为使用声音和数据的人传送数字电视信号，主要分为3种：DVBH，主要在欧洲受到欢迎；DMB，正在韩国和日本被采用；以及MediaFLO，已经在美国铺开其网络。
与此相反，在iPod或其他便携式视频播放器上观看下载的电视节目已经成为可能，而且不像那些通过3G网络或专用移动电视网传送的节目，人们可以在地铁里或者网络信号覆盖不稳定的地区观看储存在iPod上的节目。这说明有些节目（比如戏剧）比较适合用下载的形式，而另一些节目（比如现场直播新闻、体育节目或现场节目）更加适合实时播送。这两种方法有可能共存。
就像有几种互相竞争的移动电视技术那样，同样存在着几种可能的商业模式。移动运营商也许会选择建立起他们自己的移动电视广播网；或者他们可以组成联盟建立起一个共享网络；或者现有的广播公司会建立起类似的网络。
如果这个网络可以赢利，关键问题就是广播公司能否和移动运营商就如何划分利益达成一致。广播公司拥有节目内容，但掌上终端通常都由移动运营商控制，而且他们并不总是意见一致。在韩国，广播公司联盟上个月开播了一个免费的DMB网络，但是这个国家的移动运营商却并不愿意为他们的用户提供能够接收这个广播信号的掌上终端，因为他们不愿破坏他们自己拥有付费移动电视业务的前景。
于是，接下来的问题就是谁将投资移动电视内容的制作：广播公司、运营商还是广告商？同样的，答案很可能是他们所有人。
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