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"The great manufacturers in the Yorkshire and Lancashire districts tell me that, under modern conditions, they have got into the habit of laying in supply not for a period of two to five months but they are dependent week by week on the importation of the raw material." So Sir George Parkin described the alarming business practices found in Britain at the dawn of the 20th century. As a leader of the Imperial Federation League, he sought to replace the British empire with a bigger group of trading partners, so as to guarantee supplies. A hundred years on, Sir George would have marvelled at globalisation, but been aghast that today's manufacturers measure their inventories in only a few hours of production.
The great manufacturers now have amazingly lean operations. They have outsourced business to contractors that can do the work more efficiently, often in places where wages are lower. A huge logistics industry has sprung up to move stuff around the world at dazzling speed.
Contain erisation has slashed the cost of shipping. Express airfreight has made overnight delivery possible to most places on earth. Moreover, such services are within the grasp not just of the supply departments of giant multinationals but also of anyone trading on eBay from the spare bedroom.
The logistics business is one of the marvels of commerce, but it is not without its risks. Supply chains have become ever more complex and extended. Some great manufacturers and great service companies may have become too lean in their relentless drive to reduce costs, outsourcing not just their noncore activities but essential ones too. If one link of a company's supply chain snaps, the consequences can be grave. Ericsson and Nokia found this out when they both relied on the same supplier for a special chip in their mobile phones. After the chipmaker's factory was hit by lightning, Nokia swiftly locked up all the alternative supplies whereas Ericsson suffered a severe parts shortage and later quit making handsets on its own.
A company's best protection from its own supply chain is to expect failure, not to hide from it. Toyota last year narrowly escaped a parts shortage when an American supplier went bankrupt. The carmaker has now introduced an earlywarning system in Europe to try to detect any looming problems with suppliers before they bring production lines to a halt.
The good news is that many companies are now trying to identify the choke points and weak links in their supply chains. What about Sir George's concern-the wider threat to national economies? With so many people worrying about oil supplies and a birdflu pandemic, the prospect of supply chains collapsing around the world can seem a scary idea.
It shouldn't be. There are a few industries where it makes sense for governments to keep some emergency stocks of a few essentials such as energy, munitions and medicines. But the logistical apocalypse is not a good way for politicians to think about everyday life, let alone to start interfering in markets.
Natural disasters are not, in fact, a common cause of supplychain disruptions. Most are the result of humdrum internal problems, like bad planning or the choice of an unreliable subcontractor. That can be terrible for a particular company, but hardly poses a threat to society at large. After all, if Ericsson and Nokia cannot supply you with a mobile phone, Samsung would be only too happy to get one to you tomorrow.
20世纪初期，英国的George Park先生曾经有过这样的商业情景描述：约克夏郡和兰开夏郡的大制造商们告诉我，在现在的条件下，他们已经养成了以周为周期采购原材料的习惯，而不是像原来那样以2－5个月作为原材料采购周期。作为IFL（皇家联盟集团）的领导人，他寻求在大英帝国的基础上建立一个更加广泛的贸易伙伴联盟，以保障供应。一百年过去了，如果George先生还活着，他在惊叹全球化的同时，必然更加震惊于当今的制造商仅在生产前几个小时完成库存准备工作这个现实。
当今大制造商的运作模式都非常简单化。他们将很多工作外包给具有劳动力成本优势且更有效率的承包商。庞大的物流产业就是在这样的背景下，以令人震惊的速度在全球运转开来。
集装箱运输大大降低了运输成本，航空特快可以使地球上大多数地点的货物在一夜间到达。更令人震惊的是，这些服务并不是大型跨国企业所独享的，每个人都可以在自己的卧室通过ebay这样的交易平台来获得这种服务。
物流业的确是一个商业奇迹，但它并非没有风险。供应链变得更加复杂和冗长。有些大的制造商和服务供应商热衷于降低成本，不仅把非核心业务外包，而且连核心业务也不放过。如果企业供应链的一个环节出现问题，后果可能是非常严重的。爱立信和诺基亚曾经依赖于一个相同的芯片供应商来生产手机中一种特别的芯片。当这个芯片厂由于受到闪电袭击而意外停产时，诺基亚很快锁定了替代供应商，而爱立信则受到严重损失，并在不久后放弃了手机的独立生产。
企业保护供应链的最有效办法就是直面问题，而不是回避问题。去年，丰田汽车就险些因为一家美国供应商的破产而遭受打击，不过目前丰田已经在欧洲建立了一个早期预警系统，以检查任何可能引起停产的供应链问题。
好的一面是现在很多企业都已经开始重视供应链中有可能发生问题的薄弱环节。但是George先生的担心，即对整个国民经济的威胁，会不会出现呢？随着石油供应和禽流感疫情的传播，供应链崩溃的设想还是很令人恐慌的。
其实没必要担心这些。对于政府来说，只有少数产业需要进行应急储备，包括能源，军用物资和医药。但是对物流行业，则完全没必要日夜担心，更不必干预其市场运作。实际上，自然灾害并不是供应链断裂的常见原因。很多情况下，意外都是由于规划失误和选择了不可靠的分包商等内部原因造成的。这对于企业来说也许是灾难性的，但不会对整个社会构成威胁。毕竟，如果爱立信和诺基亚不生产手机了，三星还是会很乐于为您效劳的.
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