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If there was ever an industry vulnerable to technological change, it would have to be selling cars in America. For decades a franchise network made up of thousands of dealers has peddled ordinary cars as though they were exotic goods in a Moroccan souk. Each dealer seems to have his own opaque pricing scheme, consumers have to endure endless haggling and the financing is murky at best. Small wonder, then, that the shifty car salesman has became such a stereotype.
A decade ago a few brave souls tried to use the emerging power of the internet to modernise this fragmented and frustrating business. Scott Painter, a Californian entrepreneur, founded Cars Direct in an attempt to sell vehicles direct to consumers online. But the business failed to work as he had hoped, and he eventually left the company.
Hope springs eternal, at least where the internet is concerned. This week Mr. Painter is launching Zag, his latest attempt to modernise automobile retailing using the internet. His first big customer is Capital One, a financial giant that is one of the country's biggest providers of car loans. Meanwhile, Auto Nation, the country's largest car retailer (with over 300 dealerships), is launching Smart Choice, its own internet marketing scheme, in June.
So is the time finally ripe? Glenn Mercer of McKinsey, a consultancy, believes that internet sales efforts, even fixed price schemes, will not save customers much money because the internet firms by law cannot buy cars directly from manufacturers; they must get them from dealers. Brian Reed of Capital One retorts: "It's true, we may not offer the lowest pricebut we will offer a fair price with a lot less pain."
But the pain is not always so easy to escape. Visit many online sites to research a car, and they will sell your name immediately to local dealerships which will then harass you in the oldfashioned way.
Still, there are reasons to think that conditions may finally be favoring online sales. J.D. Power and Associates, a research firm, reckons that twothirds of new car customers use the internet for research, up from a quarter in 1998. Auto Nation reports that car sales originating on the internet have increased from 14% of its total in 2002 to about a quarter last year. Because price transparency is squeezing margins, argues Sid De Boer of Lithia, one of the country's biggest car retailers, dealers are now desperate to find ways that the internet can help them. He is convinced that online sales of new cars will soar from nothing to a quarter of Lithia's total within a decade.
So will all this mean the death of the salesman? Do not count on it says Mike Jackson, the boss of Auto Nation. His firm has already cut in half the time taken to buy a car, and it wants to cut it in half again by automating various bits of paperwork. But Mr. Jackson is convinced that consumers will always want to kick the tyres on their new car, before they sign on the dotted line: We'll put the distasteful parts online, and leave the fun part-it's like going to a candy store.
如果说有哪个行业很容易为技术革新所损害，那么这个行业无疑就是美国的汽车销售业了。经过几十年的发展，一个由数千名经销商所组成的特许经营网络已经成熟到可以像商人在摩洛哥露天广场兜售异域商品一样销售普通汽车。每个经销商看上去都有自己的暗箱定价策略，消费者只能忍受无休止的讨价还价而且最好不要让销售者知道他们的筹资渠道。正因如此，难怪不值得信赖会成为汽车经销商在人们心中根深蒂固的形象。
大约十年前，一些勇敢的先行者尝试利用新生的网络力量来使这个支离破碎和令人沮丧的行业赶上现代化的班车。一位加拿大企业家Scott Painter 建立了一个名为CarsDirect的网站，希望能直接通过网络将汽车卖给消费者。但事情并未如他所设想的那么顺利，最后他只好离开了他所在的公司。
希望总是无穷尽的，至少对网络来说是如此。本周Painter先生将发布他用来推进汽车销售现代化的最新网站Zag，他的第一个大顾客是Capital One公司，该公司是美国从事汽车消费信贷的最大公司之一。同时，美国的最大汽车零售厂AutoNation（有超过300个品牌的代理权）也将在六月公布了他们自己的网站Smart Choice,作为他们的网上销售策略。
时机终于成熟了吗？麦肯锡咨询公司的Glenn Mercer认为即使是固定价格，通过网络所达到的销售成果也不能为消费者省多少钱，因为根据美国的法律，网上公司是不能够直接从汽车厂商那里提货的，他们所得到的车只能是通过汽车经销商的渠道。Capital One公司的Brian Reed反驳说：的确，我们很难做到最便宜，但是我们会使消费者不必经历多少苦恼便能获得一个公平的价格。
但是这种苦恼不总是那么容易就能逃避的。消费者通过访问大量的网站去寻找一部车，当找到一部合适的车后，网站就会把你引导到当地的经销商那里，这又会让你重回到以前那种购车模式所带来的痛苦中去。
不过，仍然有理由相信情况最终将会趋向于对网络销售有利的方向发展。一个名为J.D. Power&Associates的调研公司，通过统计得出了三分之二的新车购买者通过网络研究有关资料的结论。而这个数字在1998年只有四分之一。AutoNation公司也称现在的汽车销售总额中有四分之一是来源于网络，相比之下，这个数字在1998年也只有14%。
Lithia公司（美国的最大经销商之一）的Sid DeBoer认为，价格的透明化会把经销商的边际利润挤干，所以现在经销商正在不顾一切地从网络寻找对他们有利的方法改进。他深信新车网上汽车交易在十年内将会由近乎零提升到接近公司销售总额的15%.
这些是否都意味着经销商将日薄西山呢？别指望那会发生，AutoNation的老板Mike Jackson说。他的公司已经把购买一辆汽车的时间缩短了一半，而且还在打算通过使各种文书工作自动化来把时间再缩短一半。但是Jackson先生确信消费者总是想在最终决定签下买车协定之前用脚踢一下他们的新车的轮胎，引用车主的话说就是：我们把令人不快的部分留在网上，而把有趣的部分留下来--就像去糖果店一样。
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